Eurovision 2019: Change in odds after first four days with rehearsals

The acts taking part in the two semi-finals have all rehearsed on stage for the first time. Now that their performance plans are known, odds have changed. Some really jumped or dropped a lot, other’s remain the same.

Saturday and Sunday, the participants in the first semi-final rehearsed on stage for the first time. Monday and Tuesday, the ones in the second semi-final did the same.

The Netherlands is still bookmaker favourite to win the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest, but odds have slightly changed since the rehearsals started. Below we have compared the odds from Saturday morning before the first ones went on stage to rehearse to Wednesday evening when all semi-final participants had rehearsed once. (All odds are from Eurovisionworld).

First semi-final

  • Cyprus went from second to first in odds to qualify for the final. In the overall ranking, Tamta however dropped from 7th to 9th to win the contest.
  • Montenegro were predicted last in the semi-final and that hasn’t changed. The overall winner ranking hasn’t changed either.
  • Finland didn’t impress the bookmakers very much. After the first round of rehearsals, they dropped from 15th in the semi-final odds to 16. In the overall winning ranking, they also dropped – from 28th to 31st.
  • Poland’s Tulia comes with quite a unique song, which certainly stands out. They went from 12th to 11th in the semi-final and as such, close to the predicted qualifiers. For the win, they remain in 29th position.
  • Slovenia comes with a cute simple song, which it is hard to dislike, but maybe it’s too simple. They at least dropped from 6th to 8th in the semi-final ranking. In the winner odds, they also dropped two places. From 15th to 17th.
  • Czech Republic were fifth in the odds for first semi-final qualification, and that is still the case. To win the contest, they however went from 19th to 16th in the odds.
  • Hungary’s Joci Pápai is back for a second Eurovision participation. He is still believed to qualify, but did drop from 4th to 6th in the odds. For the win, he however improved from 31st to 28th.
  • Belarus was 14th in the odds for the first semi-final, and there we still find Zena now. Her 35th position in the winner ranking hasn’t changed either.
  • Serbia comes with another comeback artist. Nevena Božović was 8th in the odds to qualify, now she is 7th so her rehearsal impressed the bookmakers. To win the contest, she improved from 30th to 26.
  • Belgium’s Eliot was predicted to qualify for the final in 9th position. After first round of rehearsals, he is still there. He was 20th in the winner ranking, but now dropped to 22nd.
  • Georgia was second to last in the odds for first semi-final. Oto however improved a little bit as now he third to last. In the overall winner ranking, he is however still second to last as he was before rehearsals.
  • Australia jumped from 7th in the semi-final odds to 4th. For the win, she went from 16th to 11th. That’s a big improvement.
  • Iceland’s Hatari are a bit of a dark horse this year. It’s impossible to predict how they well do. To qualify for the final, they remain in third position. To win the contest, they however dropped from 6th to 8th.
  • Estonia was predicted 10th to qualify – and as such just on the edge. That hasn’t changed just as 24th in the overall ranking hasn’t either.
  • Portugal comes with quite a unique song as well which is unlike anything else. Conan was 11th in the semi-final odds and now 12th. To win, he dropped from 13th to 18th.
  • Greece was tipped as winner of the first semi-final. Cyprus now took over that role, but Katerine is still second. In the overall winner ranking, she went from 9th to 10th, so only a little drop for her there too.
  • San Marino’s Serhat is another comeback’er this year. The bookmakers however don’t believe he will qualify. He is still 13th to do so. He is also still 39th to win.

Second semi-final

  • Armenia’s Srbuk dropped from 7th to 9th in the bookmaker odds for second semi-final. In the overall winner ranking, she went from 18th to 19th.
  • Ireland was tipped last for this semi-final, and unfortunately that’s still where they are. For the win, they dropped from 27th to 30th.
  • Moldova was top be found on 14th position in the odds for the second semi-final, and that hasn’t changed. The winner ranking also still says 37th.
  • Switzerland’s Luca Hänni was 4th to qualify from this semi-final and that is still the case. To win the contest, he however went from third to 6th.
  • Latvia was 15th in the odds to qualify for the final. They however dropped to 17th. In the overall ranking they were 38th and that still stands.
  • Romania’s Ester Peony is still in 12th position to reach the final and as such, just outside the qualifiers. Odds for her to win, still places 32nd.
  • Denmark was 10th and last to qualify from the second semi-final. That’s still the case today. For the overall win, they improved slightly from 21st to 20.
  • Sweden is chasing Ireland’s 7 win record. They were tipped second in this semi-final, but now they are the top favourite to win it. Odds to win the entire contest still puts John Lundvik as 5th.
  • Austria went from 17th to 15th for the second semi-final odds. For the total win, they also got closer; from 36th to 33rd.
  • Croatia wasn’t expected to qualify for the final, and they still aren’t. Roko is still in 16th place for the semi-final. For the win, he went from 33rd to 34th.
  • Malta is still 6th in the odds to make it from this semi-final, just as they were when rehearsals started. She did however improve her chances of winning according to bookmakers as she went from 8th to 7th.
  • Lithuania was before rehearsals 13th in the odds to qualify and that is the situation. In the overall ranking, they went from 34th to 36th.
  • Russia’s big star Lazarev was third in the odds for the second semi-final and that hasn’t changed. His predicted second place hasn’t been challenged either.
  • Albania was placed 11th and as such just barely outside the 10 qualifiers. That is still the case, so don’t rule out Jonida yet. For the win, she went from 23rd to 21st.
  • Norway was eight in the odds to qualify from the second semi-final, and now they are 7th. Their chances of winning however dropped from 10th to 13th with the bookmakers.
  • The Netherlands was favourite to win the semi-final, but now Duncan Laurence however is only second. He is still the bookmakers favourite to win though.
  • North Macedonia comes with another comeback’er this year. Tamara was 9th in the semi-final odds to 8th now. In the overall winning prediction, she improved from 17th to 15th.
  • Azerbaijan was 5th in the odds for this second semi-final, and that is still the case. For the win, the bookmakers had Chingiz 12th before the rehearsals, now he is 4th.

Big 5 + host country

The pre-qualified so-called Big 5 countries plus this year’s host country Israel have not yet been on stage for their first rehearsal, so any change here is more based on the other countries rather than rehearsals from the acts themselves.

  • United Kingdom was 22nd in the odds to win – and now 23rd.
  • Spain’s Miki was placed as 14th to win, and that has not changed.
  • Italy was fourth favourite for the win – and now third.
  • Germany was 26th – and now 27th.
  • France was tipped 11th – and are now 12th.
  • Israel was 25th in the odds – and that hasn’t changed at all.

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