Every day after work I make myself comfortable in front of my computer to watch was has been going on in Moscow during the day. I have seen the videos of the first rehearsals of the 2nd semifinal and here are my impressions.

Croatia: It fails to touch me. Definitely not a qualifier in my eyes.

Ireland: After a slow start with Croatia, this really kicks off this semifinal. If there is any justice this will qualify.

Latvia: I disliked the song from the first hearing. I know this song has it’s fans and I can’t understand you 🙂 Not close to being a qualifier.

Serbia: I kind of like this one, and the coreography is new compared to the one from the national final. I like it but will the televoters? I think it will qualify.

Poland: Weak vocals. Was a borderline qualifier I think before the final but after the performance I changed it to a non-qualifier.

Norway: I can’t see how this possibly could fail. A happy & confident performance. Not a shadow of a doubt that this must be the winner. I can see the votes coming in from young & old – from every corner of Europe,

Cyprus: Pretty girl, weak vocals, boring song. No final for Cyprus.

Slovakia: Yet another ballad. Too boring to catch my interest. Won’t qualify. Will it get any points at all?

Denmark: It’s definitely strong enough to qualify I think.

Slovenia: What a long intro – too long! The four guys on stage could try to cheer up a little maybe? Not a qualifier in my eyes.

Hungary: It’s a bit of a mix of Bosnias entry 2004 and Belgiums entry 2007 I think. Will do a result somewhere between those two maybe? In that case a borderline qualifier at best.

Azerbaijan: Feels like a sure qualifier and should end up somewhere 4-7th in the final.

Greece: The intro is good but the chorus feels quite flat. I think this is top 3 material but I would be surprised if it won.

Lithuania: For me this is just kind of boring but I know a lot of fans belives in this one. Well it’s different but does not convince me enough to put it as a qualifier. But with that said, I think it very well could get the jury vote.

Moldova: Moldova has qualified 2 times and missed qualifying 2 times. I think it is time to qualify this year again.

Albania: Kejsi sings well. Not sure if it will qualify, but my gut feeling says that it will.

Ukraine: I made a small bet on Ukraine to win (the odds here in Sweden offers good money value for that) but she has to improve the performance if she is gonna be near a top 3. At the moment it is a 4-7th placed song I think.

Estonia: Now this is maybe the song that is hardest to predict the outcome for. My heart wants it to be in the top 3 but it could go anywhere really. With the right production, it could go very high I think.

Netherlands: Could this piece of cheesyness really work on the viewers? I don’t think so, even if starting from last positon is a advantage.

After the first rehearsal, I have not changed my pre-contest prediction much. I would rate the chances to qualify as follows at the moment:

Norway (100 % sure)
Greece (100 %)
Azerbaijan (99 %)
Estonia (95 %)
Ukraine (95 %)
Denmark (70 % )
Moldova (65 %)
Ireland (50 %)
Albania (50 %)
Serbia (50 %)

Lithuania (40 %)
Hungary (40%)
Slovenia (30 %)
Netherlands (25 %)
Croatia (25 %)
Poland (20 %)
Latvia (10 %)
Cyprus (2 %)
Slovakia (1 %)